A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Chinese Script vs Plate-Like Precipitation of Beta-Al9Fe2Si2 Phase in an Al-6.5Si-1Fe Alloy

The microstructure of a high-purity Al-6.5Si-1Fe(wt pct) alloy after solidification at various cooling rates was investigated. In most of the cases, the monoclinic beta-Al9Fe2Si2 phase was observed as long and thin lamellae. However, at a very slow cooling rate, Febearing precipitates with Chinese script morphology appeared together with lamellae. Further analysis showed all these Chinese script precipitates correspond also to the monoclinic beta phase. This finding stresses that differentiating second phases according to their shape may be misleading

γ spectroscopy of states in Cl 32 relevant for the S 31 (p,γ) Cl 32 reaction rate

Background: The S31(p,γ)Cl32 reaction becomes important for sulfur production in novae if the P31(p,α)Si28 reaction rate is somewhat greater than currently accepted. The rate of the S31(p,γ)Cl32 reaction is uncertain, primarily due to the properties of resonances at Ec.m.=156 and 549 keV. Purpose: We precisely determined the excitation energies of states in Cl32 through high-resolution γ spectroscopy including the two states most important for the S31(p,γ)Cl32 reaction at nova temperatures. Method: Excited states in Cl32 were populated using the B10(Mg24,2n)Cl32 reaction with a Mg24 beam from the ATLAS facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The reaction channel of interest was selected using recoils in the Fragment Mass Analyzer, and precise level energies were determined by detecting γ rays with Gammasphere. Results: We observed γ rays from the decay of six excited states in Cl32. The excitation energies for two unbound levels at Ex=1738.1 (6) keV and 2130.5 (10) keV were determined and found to be in agreement with a previous high-precision measurement of the S32(He3,t)Cl32 reaction [1]. Conclusions: An updated S31(p,γ)Cl32 reaction rate is presented. With the excitation energies of important levels firmly established, the dominant uncertainty in the reaction rate at nova temperatures is due to the strength of the resonance corresponding to the 2131-keV state in Cl32

Diagnostic applications of molecular and serological assays for bluetongue and African horse sickness

The availability of rapid, highly sensitive and specific molecular and serologic diagnostic assays, such as competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA), has expedited the diagnosis of emerging transboundary animal diseases, including bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS), and facilitated more thorough characterisation of their epidemiology. The development of assays based on real-time, reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect and identify the numerous serotypes of BT virus (BTV) and AHS virus (AHSV) has aided in-depth studies of the epidemiology of BTV infection in California and AHSV infection in South Africa. The subsequent evaluation of pan-serotype, real-time, RT-PCR-positive samples through the use of serotype-specific RT-PCR assays allows the rapid identification of virus serotypes, reducing the need for expensive and time-consuming conventional methods, such as virus isolation and serotype-specific virus neutralisation assays. These molecular assays and cELISA platforms provide tools that have enhanced epidemiologic surveillance strategies and improved our understanding of potentially altered Culicoides midge behaviour when infected with BTV. They have also supported the detection of subclinical AHSV infection of vaccinated horses in South Africa. Moreover, in conjunction with whole genome sequence analysis, these tests have clarified that the mechanism behind recent outbreaks of AHS in the AHS-controlled area of South Africa was the result of the reversion to virulence and/or genome reassortment of live attenuated vaccine viruses. This review focuses on the use of contemporary molecular diagnostic assays in the context of recent epidemiologic studies and explores their advantages over historic virus isolation and serologic techniques.https://www.woah.org/en/what-we-do/publications/scientific-and-technical-reviewVeterinary Tropical Disease

Accretion, Outflows, and Winds of Magnetized Stars

Many types of stars have strong magnetic fields that can dynamically influence the flow of circumstellar matter. In stars with accretion disks, the stellar magnetic field can truncate the inner disk and determine the paths that matter can take to flow onto the star. These paths are different in stars with different magnetospheres and periods of rotation. External field lines of the magnetosphere may inflate and produce favorable conditions for outflows from the disk-magnetosphere boundary. Outflows can be particularly strong in the propeller regime, wherein a star rotates more rapidly than the inner disk. Outflows may also form at the disk-magnetosphere boundary of slowly rotating stars, if the magnetosphere is compressed by the accreting matter. In isolated, strongly magnetized stars, the magnetic field can influence formation and/or propagation of stellar wind outflows. Winds from low-mass, solar-type stars may be either thermally or magnetically driven, while winds from massive, luminous O and B type stars are radiatively driven. In all of these cases, the magnetic field influences matter flow from the stars and determines many observational properties. In this chapter we review recent studies of accretion, outflows, and winds of magnetized stars with a focus on three main topics: (1) accretion onto magnetized stars; (2) outflows from the disk-magnetosphere boundary; and (3) winds from isolated massive magnetized stars. We show results obtained from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations and, in a number of cases compare global simulations with observations.Comment: 60 pages, 44 figure

Neutronic Design and Measured Performance of the Low Energy Neutron Source (LENS) Target Moderator Reflector Assembly

The Low Energy Neutron Source (LENS) is an accelerator-based pulsed cold neutron facility under construction at the Indiana University Cyclotron Facility (IUCF). The idea behind LENS is to produce pulsed cold neutron beams starting with ~MeV neutrons from (p,n) reactions in Be which are moderated to meV energies and extracted from a small solid angle for use in neutron instruments which can operate efficiently with relatively broad (~1 msec) neutron pulse widths. Although the combination of the features and operating parameters of this source is unique at present, the neutronic design possesses several features similar to those envisioned for future neutron facilities such as long-pulsed spallation sources (LPSS) and very cold neutron (VCN) sources. We describe the underlying ideas and design details of the target/moderator/reflector system (TMR) and compare measurements of its brightness, energy spectrum, and emission time distribution under different moderator configurations with MCNP simulations. Brightness measurements using an ambient temperature water moderator agree with MCNP simulations within the 20% accuracy of the measurement. The measured neutron emission time distribution from a solid methane moderator is in agreement with simulation and the cold neutron flux is sufficient for neutron scattering studies of materials. We describe some possible modifications to the existing design which would increase the cold neutron brightness with negligible effect on the emission time distribution.Comment: This is a preprint version of an article which has been published in Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research A 587 (2008) 324-341. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nima.2007.12.04

Reaction rate for carbon burning in massive stars

Carbon burning is a critical phase for nucleosynthesis in massive stars. The conditions for igniting this burning stage, and the subsequent isotope composition of the resulting ashes, depend strongly on the reaction rate for C12+C12 fusion at very low energies. Results for the cross sections for this reaction are influenced by various backgrounds encountered in measurements at such energies. In this paper, we report on a new measurement of C12+C12 fusion cross sections where these backgrounds have been minimized. It is found that the astrophysical S factor exhibits a maximum around Ecm=3.5-4.0 MeV, which leads to a reduction of the previously predicted astrophysical reaction rate

In-beam spectroscopy of medium- and high-spin states in Ce 133

Medium and high-spin states in Ce133 were investigated using the Cd116(Ne22, 5n) reaction and the Gammasphere array. The level scheme was extended up to an excitation energy of ∼22.8 MeV and spin 93/2. Eleven bands of quadrupole transitions and two new dipole bands are identified. The connections to low-lying states of the previously known, high-spin triaxial bands were firmly established, thus fixing the excitation energy and, in many cases, the spin parity of the levels. Based on comparisons with cranked Nilsson-Strutinsky calculations and tilted axis cranking covariant density functional theory, it is shown that all observed bands are characterized by pronounced triaxiality. Competing multiquasiparticle configurations are found to contribute to a rich variety of collective phenomena in this nucleus

Fusion measurements of 12C+12C at energies of astrophysical interest

The cross section of the 12C+12C fusion reaction at low energies is of paramount importance for models of stellar nucleosynthesis in different astrophysical scenarios, such as Type Ia supernovae and Xray superbursts, where this reaction is a primary route for the production of heavier elements. In a series of experiments performed at Argonne National Laboratory, using Gammasphere and an array of Silicon detectors, measurements of the fusion cross section of 12C+12C were successfully carried out with the γ and charged-particle coincidence technique in the center-of-mass energy range of 3-5 MeV. These were the first background-free fusion cross section measurements for 12C+12C at energies of astrophysical interest. Our results are consistent with previous measurements in the high-energy region; however, our lowest energy measurement indicates a fusion cross section slightly lower than those obtained with other techniques